A strong victory for the Alternative for Germany party in the German state elections

If he sees the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse as a test of his popularity, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has had enough headaches since Sunday evening. As expected in the opinion polls, the Social Democratic Party declined. In Bavaria, this percentage rose from 9.7 to 8.5 percent, according to opinion polls conducted by the television channels ARD and ZDF. In Hesse, the Socialists will end up with 15 to 16 percent. This is worse than the historically poor result of 19.8% in 2018 – despite the fact that the SPD brought in Interior Minister Nancy Visser.

As a result, there is a real chance that the far-right Alternative for Germany party will become the second largest party in both states. In Bavaria, the party will jump from 10.2 to 15 to 16 percent. In Hesse, the AfD’s support rate will jump from 13.1 to 16 to 17 percent. The far-right party’s result was followed by skepticism across Germany.

The sister parties, the Christian Democrats and the conservative CDU and CSU, are certain to win the elections. In Bavaria, Prime Minister Markus Söder’s Christian Social Union (CSU) would have received 36.5 to 37.0 percent of the vote, roughly the same result it received in 2018. Center-right coalition partner Freren Waller would also improve, From 11.6 percent to 14 percent.

In the state of Hesse, Prime Minister Boris Rehn’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will achieve between 34.5 and 35.5 percent, a good gain compared to the result of 27 percent in 2018. On the other hand, the proportion of the Green coalition partner will fall from 19.8 percent to 15.5 in The hundred.

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Denton Watson

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