Geert Wilders’ last race had maximum impact: based on the first exit poll, the PVV appeared to have become the largest party with 35 seats. After 98% of the votes were counted, the number of seats for the PVV increased to 37 seats. It is followed by GroenLinks-PvdA and VVD with 25 and 24 seats respectively. Newcomer National Security Council, Peter Omtsigt’s party, comes in fourth place with 20 seats.
This will be the first time that the Party for Freedom has the largest faction in the House of Representatives and the first time that a far-right party has become the largest in the House of Representatives elections. This would also be his best ever result for Wilders: the FPÖ’s best electoral result to date was in 2010, when the party won 24 seats.
There is a large gap between the fourth party, the NSC, and the smaller parties in the exit polls: the next closest parties are D66 with 9 seats (in the previous election there were 24) and BBB with 7 seats (previously 1). This is followed by the CDA and SP, both with five seats. FvD, CU, PvdD, Denk and SGP each get 3 seats. Volt got two seats. The JA21 and 50Plus both have 1.
The first opinion poll shows that the current coalition, which now has 77 seats in the House of Representatives, will lose more than 30 seats. The VVD lost 13 seats in Ipsos polls, and the D66 lost 15 seats. The other two parties in the coalition also lost. For the CDA, 5 seats would be the worst result ever. The Christian Union will fall from 5 to 3.
Wilders: We will judge
Geert Wilders has already given his victory speech. “I’m telling you: The voter has spoken tonight. The voter said: We are tired of this. We want this Dutchman to become No. 1 again. “We will work to ensure that the Netherlands becomes Dutch again, and that the asylum tsunami is stopped.”
“We will make a serious effort to ensure that these people’s hopes are fulfilled. I appeal to other parties. Until now we had a campaign. Now the campaign is over and we will have to search for common ground and work together,” he added.
We can no longer be ignored and we want to cooperate with other parties. Every party, including ours, will have to jump over its own shadow. We want to rule. With 35 seats (Wilders spoke after the first exit poll, during which time his number of seats had risen to 37) We are going to judge. “It would be undemocratic to leave the voter out.”
Wilders describes the election results as “an enormous compliment, but also an enormous responsibility for every member of the Freedom Party. We will do our best to achieve this.”
“For us, the result is disappointing,” admits VVD leader Dylan Yeşilgoz. “There are great lessons for politics. People were not listened to enough and not enough practical solutions were proposed.” Yeşilgoz says the initiative does not fall to her party. “The bullets are not ours.”
What are the possible alliances?
Forming a coalition already looked very difficult based on the polls, but it will become even more difficult with the poll results. Of the three largest parties after the Freedom Party, two have said they do not want to work with Geert Wilders in government: GroenLinks-PvdA and the NSC. The VVD, through party leader Yeselgöz, has indicated that it does not want to work under Prime Minister Wilders, but has not categorically ruled out the party either.
It is possible to form a government without the Freedom Party, but it is also complicated. GroenLinks-PvdA (25), VVD (24) and NSC (20) together have 69 seats. For example, if D66 (9 seats) joined, there would be a majority of 78 seats.
A right-wing government that includes the Party for Freedom (37), the Freedom for Democracy Party (24), the BBB Party (7), the JA21 Party (1), and the Freedom for Democracy Party (3) obtains 72 seats.
