Opinion polls predict a shift to the right in the European elections outside

Far-right parties in France, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and Austria, among others, end up at the top of the ECFR electoral model. Like-minded parties, for example, in Germany, Spain and Sweden record almost similar results.

ECFR researchers predict that due to the rise of far-right parties, the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals will not be able to secure a majority in the EU Parliament. Currently, the European Commission still typically relies on these three middle factions, which include, for example, MEPs from CD&V, Voruit, Open VLD, Groen and N-VA. They support more European cooperation. They also broadly agree on support for Ukraine, on further EU enlargement, and even on climate policy, although this is a bit difficult for many Christian Democrats and some liberals.

Researchers at the European Council on Foreign Relations believe that the latter may constitute a new right-wing majority in the new European Parliament with a noticeably increased right-wing. Even if this happens sporadically, it would constitute a historic break with the decades-long pro-European centrist path.

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Denton Watson

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