The IPCC envisions these scenarios for the planet: Mitigating global warming is still possible, but not without action | Sciences

Without a “drastic” reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades, global warming this century will easily exceed 1.5°C or even 2°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that In the latest Climate Change Report released today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change envisages five scenarios for the Earth, depending on the evolution in greenhouse gas emissions.




In the worst case scenario, a sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions (almost doubling by 2050 or 2100 from 2015 levels) could raise average global temperature by as much as 1.9 to 3.0 °C, which could reach the end of the century +3.3 Total + 5.7 °C. In other words, the planet will be very much unlivable to become.

In the best scenario, with significant emissions reductions and zero emissions by 2050 and negative emissions after that (thanks to carbon dioxide storage), global warming could To be limited to +1.6°C by 2050 and +1.4°C in the long term. This would achieve the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement (keeping global warming below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C). “We will exceed this 0.1°C limit by the middle of the century, but this crossing will only be temporary. In this scenario, there is a greater than one in two chance of reaching the 1.5°C limit. It will not be exceeded”, assures climate scientist Jean-Pascal Van Libresil (UCLouvain).

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Any increase of 0.5°C in global temperature will lead to an increase in its intensity and frequency heat waves, fierce precipitation and periods droughtThe authors of the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change caution. No region in the world will escape the effects of climate change.

Global warming is also accompanied by a greater number of tropical cyclones of classes 4 and 5, the most intense and therefore the most destructive.

In addition, warming is likely to result in melting subordinate permafrost Amplify, just like that melted subordinate glaciers and the ice Arctic Ocean. As a result, the Arctic is likely to be free of ice at least once a year by 2050.

If emissions continue to rise, the oceans and other natural carbon stores will become less effective at absorbing carbon dioxide, which will increase the amount of carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere, scientists have warned.

Finally, the IPCC report asserts that changes in oceans, ice sheets and sea levels will be irreversible in the coming centuries to millennia.

Denton Watson

"Friend of animals everywhere. Evil twitter fan. Pop culture evangelist. Introvert."

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