“There’s a chance of snow in the weather models, but there’s also a lot of wind”: A white Christmas, or rather a stormy Christmas? | Science and the planet

As the weather year approaches its end, we see the chances of winter rain increasing. December is a month par excellence where snow can lead to a magical moment. We officially talk about a white Christmas when a closed snow cover of at least 1cm is measured at Oakley on 25 December. As a result, the chance of a white Christmas is higher in Belgium than in the Netherlands, where this should be the case on December 25 and 26.

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White Christmas is very exceptional in the Benelux countries. We have to go back to 2009 and 2010 to celebrate white Christmas in Belgium. We can conclude from statistics that a white Christmas in Belgium occurs on average every 11 years.

So we have to look at the polar vortex. This strong area of ​​low pressure is located in the Arctic and traps cold air there. However, if there is massive warming in the stratosphere, it could weaken, causing cold air to escape south and cause a cold snap in our region.

Unfortunately, the recent signs are rather negative. Weather models are backtracking on this astonishing warming in the stratosphere. That would be bad news for winter fans. They often hope for this incredible warming until wintry weather occurs later in the winter.

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As we approach Christmas 2023, we will see a very large portion of the polar vortex heading towards Scandinavia. This is accompanied by a strong gradient. The difference between high and low pressure brings the isobar lines closer together. This is an indication to the meteorologist that the chance of strong winds is increasing sharply.

In the period between 20 and 24 December, we must take into account very turbulent weather and the necessary rain coming from the Atlantic Ocean.

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But we can’t write off Christmas snow completely yet. Because there is still a chance for a winter scenario. When the polar vortex can penetrate deep into Europe, the air flow becomes northwesterly and you get a supply of polar air to marine polar air. This gradually cools the upper air, which, combined with the rather warm North Sea, brings heavy rain (snow).

It cannot be ruled out that these showers will be accompanied by winter rains in the period leading up to Christmas. American and European weather models regularly indicate this scenario, with the possibility of snowfall, especially in the Ardennes region. Sometimes some snow appears below 200 metres, but we have to be very careful with this in the long run.

In the lead up to the Christmas holidays, many people are gearing up for a carefree Christmas break with winter sports options. In the Alps we can expect a lot of snow with northwesterly air flow. French, Swiss and Austrian slopes in particular can expect widespread snowfall. It appears that the southern regions of the Alps benefit less from these amounts of snow

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As we look further into the term, the unreliability of weather models increases dramatically. We currently see no strong signs of King Winter expanding into Western Europe. The Atlantic Ocean looks quite dominant, and other factors are not immediately favorable for the rest of the month. Winter weather chances may increase in January. The European weather model comes with pulses of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean and cold air northeast of the lowlands. Then a touch of winter weather is never far away.

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