With a seemingly simple ad for a bookcase, furniture giant IKEA recently made painfully clear why the Portuguese will go to the polls for the third time in five years on Sunday. The billboards say: “Good for storing books.” “Or 75,800 euros.”
This amount was not surprising: it was exactly the amount of cash that Portuguese police found last year, hidden in books and a wine box in the office of then Prime Minister Costa's chief of staff.
In a wide-ranging corruption investigation, which revolves around the granting of permits for lithium extraction, among other things, Costa has seen a series of people close to him identified as suspects. Although he remained immune from official suspicions of corruption, Costa felt compelled to announce the end of his eight-year prime ministership last November. This put a temporary end to the few success stories achieved by social democrats in Europe.
Exchange a penny
On Sunday, more than ten million Portuguese will be able to cast their votes to elect a new parliament. Since the Carnation Revolution put an end to right-wing dictatorship fifty years ago in April, it has been a good Portuguese custom to exchange pennies between the left wing. Socialist Party (Note) The governor Social Democratic Party (PSD). As a rule, together they can count on at least two-thirds of the total votes.
Costa's successor, former Infrastructure Minister Pedro Nuno Santos, is defending a precious absolute majority in parliament. The right-wing coalition, led by the Social Democratic Party led by current opposition leader Luis Montenegro, has a narrow lead in the opinion polls.
However, the spotlight in this election is not on Santos or his opponent Montenegro, but rather on a former sports commentator. Through his Chiga (“Basta”) party, founded in 2019, Andre Ventura hopes to break the traditional dominance of the Socialist Party and the Social Democratic Party.
An indication of corruption
Amid growing dissatisfaction with what Ventura called “old politics,” his party is headed toward 17 percent of the vote in opinion polls, more than double its current share of the vote. With the slogan “Clean Portugal”, he announced that corruption was one of the main themes of his election campaign.
Because it is not only the Socialist Party that has a hint of corruption surrounding it. The SPD is also struggling with its own corruption scandals, the latest involving two of the party's top politicians in Madeira abroad.
However, the dissatisfaction from which Chiga hopes to reap benefits extends far beyond corruption alone. Opinion polls show that the poor state of health care and education, as well as high house prices and costs of living, top Portuguese voters' lists.
Under Costa, house prices more than doubled. In Lisbon, which is overrun by tourists and expatriates, the average salary is barely enough to rent a house. The country has been struggling for years with a brain drain of young, highly educated Portuguese looking for better economic opportunities elsewhere in Europe.
Recently, Ventura spoke at an election rally, saying: “The past has made us poorer,” presenting his party as an alternative to disillusioned Portuguese. According to opinion polls, he is especially popular among young people. On platforms like TikTok and Instagram, Chega has twice as many followers as PS and PSD combined.
Right-wing extremist hobbies
Not only through its anti-establishment rhetoric does Chiga show similarities to similar European spirits. Other amateur voices from the far-right text are also heard. “Uncontrolled Muslim immigration poses a danger that cannot be ignored,” Ventura warned in 2021. Locally, the Roma population, whom Ventura described as lazy profiteers, often suffer.
Because of its “xenophobic, racist, populist and often excessively demagogic” rhetoric, Montenegro categorically rules out Cega as a potential coalition partner. But the question is what would happen if, according to the most likely scenario, his right-wing coalition wins the largest number of votes, but is unable to achieve a majority. Therefore, Ventura is eagerly preparing for the role of kingmaker in the upcoming government negotiations.
For a long time, the Socialist Party and the PSOE thought they had escaped the right-wing populist dance. After Sunday they will have to deal with their replacement. Whatever its competitors' plans, Ventura warns, “Chiga is here to stay.”
