National Climate Risk Assessment 2022-2026 | Dutch environmental assessment agency PBL

March 23, 2023 | a report

PBL publishes a method for investigating current and future climate risks. This is part of the second national analysis of climate risks, which PBL is conducting in collaboration with knowledge institutions. Climate risks and impacts are complex. This requires a structured analysis method, which is covered in detail in this report. This method allows climate risks and impacts to be compared in a transparent and standardized manner. The methodology also makes it possible to quantify the urgency of different climate risks.

The first national climate risk analysis was published in the Netherlands in 2015. In 2021, various administrations, under the banner of the National Climate Adaptation Strategy Managers Consultation, asked the PBL to carry out a new climate risk analysis. The aim of the risk analysis is to provide insight into the current situation and development towards a climate-resilient and water-strong Netherlands in 2050 and beyond. This analysis will provide new knowledge to revise the National Climate Adaptation Strategy and establish a structured climate impacts monitor. The method forms the basis for the Dutch Climate Risk Analysis 2022-2026.

Heavy rains will become more frequent in the future

Climate risk analysis

In researching climate risks, the participating institutes of knowledge identified the most important climate threats, exposures, vulnerabilities and adaptation possibilities for each sector (policy). Exposure to, and vulnerability to, climatic events are not only changing due to climate change, but also due to social developments. In order to adapt to climate change (adaptation), it is important to have an insight into the possibilities of adaptation and adaptation policy.

Climate hazards in the Netherlands

This report describes a structured and reproducible method International Guidelines for Climate Risk Analysis, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and the latest climate risk assessments from the UK and Germany. The focus is on the impact and potential of climate risks in the Netherlands on people, culture, nature, the environment and the economy. It is about climate risks in the current situation and the future situation (2050, 2100 and 2150).

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