Law and Justice (PiS) is likely to win Sunday’s Polish elections, correspondent Geert Jan Hahn predicts. He added: “What we should fundamentally look at in the outcome is whether the three opposition parties are able to form a majority together.”
According to Hahn, Donald Tusk’s opposition BurgerPlatform party will “try to make another move” in the coming days, but he expects PiS to win easily in the end. This does not mean that this party will also assume leadership of the next Polish government. “The main thing is whether the three main opposition parties are able to achieve a majority together.”
He says this will be looked into with interest in Brussels. He added: “What unites these parties is the better relationship with Brussels and the normal view of human rights, the rule of law and freedom of the press.” PiS has increasingly eroded these freedoms in recent years and has therefore been on a collision course with Brussels for some time.
“PiS has a tough campaign,” Hahn says. It sounds like a harbinger of Trump vs. Biden, with old and well-known headlines in Poland as well. Lots of bombastic music and loud atmosphere.
Poland needs immigrants
Correspondent Floris Ackermann, who is also in Poland, says PiS “presents itself as the guardian of Poland and is strongly opposed to immigration.” But he says it could also work to their disadvantage. “Because Poland is doing well in terms of the economy, and could overtake the UK in terms of prosperity by 2030. But to maintain this growth, they need immigrants. From Ukraine, but also from further afield.”
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The Law and Justice Party also turned against supporting Ukraine in the campaign. “While until recently it seemed like they were friends through thick and thin,” Ackerman says. “It indicates that for PiS, Poland’s interests must come first.”
Reduce campaign rhetoric
Han believes that if PiS made this, the soup might not be eaten as hot as it is served. “Maybe the campaign rhetoric has been scaled back a little, and they say it’s still important to support Ukraine militarily,” he added. The majority of the population also supports this.
Opinion polls are expected to be conducted on Sunday evening. Final results may take a little longer.