Locally as much precipitation is expected in 24 hours as normal for the entire month. Weatherman David Dehenau: “Code Red Isn’t Off the Table Yet” | Science and the planet

Today, the eastern and southeastern half of our country can expect heavy rain in about 24 hours or less. Locally, in some provinces there can be between 50 and 100 mm/m². A large amount if you know that in a normal month of June in our country there are about 70mm / sqm in total.

“We declared Code Orange in the eastern and southeastern provinces because we expect between 50 and 100 mm/sqm in a 24-hour period,” says Dehenau. There are two computer models that locally predict more than 100 mm/m2 in the provinces of Liège, Luxembourg and Namur. Thus, code red is not entirely off the table if persistent rain is locally accompanied by severe thunderstorms. We can only predict the latter in a short time. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.”

Dehenauw reported this morning that RMI’s orange code will continue for the time being in said counties. “Current calculations confirm local 50-100mm in the SE half. Very local could be a little more with heavy thunderstorm. We are maintaining the warning but will have calculations in the next few hours and continue to evaluate.”

The coast and West Flanders seem to have been largely spared. The Northwest will not notice the disturbances. It might even stay quite dry in there in some places. I don’t see this changing with current weather models.”

The cause of all this precipitation is the turmoil that still exists in our country today. “It’s a rippling cold front moving from France to our country,” Dehenau explains. “Once it gets to our country, the disturbance will continue and then it will continue to travel towards Germany. And because this disturbance lasts for 24 hours, we get continuous rain. That, combined with local storms, can produce a lot of rain, according to the weather models.”

It immediately reminds us of severe weather in 2021. Then the disruption also continued in the east and southeast of the country, with all the consequences that follow. However, our weather qualifies: “There was indeed turbulence in our country at that time, but for a much longer period than now. Precipitation was also projected to be twice as high at that time. With current weather models, there is no indication That will be the case now.”

Although this does not mean that we should not be careful today. According to RMI, there is a risk of flooding and serious traffic nuisance with code orange.

Also tonight there will be rain mainly, with local thunderstorms, in the east of the country. In the West and Midwest, it will be as good as dry with clear spells. Thursday night it will be dry all around with broad clearances gradually. The lows fluctuate between 10 and 16 degrees in light to moderate winds.

Friday morning there are low cloud fields in the Ardennes relief. Elsewhere there may be some fog or a local fog bank. And soon it will be sunny all around. During the day, wide clearings alternate with cloud fields, which still provide secluded pools locally. Maximums fluctuate between 22 degrees in the sea and in the highlands and 27 degrees in the middle.

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