Will a warm summer be followed by a wet spring? This is what weather models predict | Weather News

Did the beautiful spring weather this past weekend make you anxiously await the summer months? Next week, we will again achieve pleasant spring temperatures. But what can we expect from June, July and August? Look to summer.

The impact of climate change has been felt in our country in recent years. Belgium is warming faster than the global average, and this is also noticeable in our summers. It is now about 2.7 degrees warmer than when measurements began at Uccle in 1833. This is a trend that has been observed across Europe. Summer temperatures in the past three decades were the warmest in at least 2,000 years, according to the Marshall Islands Institute.

Based on the statistics, we can assume that our summer will be much warmer than usual. But how will a wet spring and El Niño affect the coming months?

Wet spring effect

It was a wet spring in Belgium. In the past, it used to follow that gloomy and cold summer. Sometimes this was accompanied by a lot of rain, and in other years it was very dry. This wet spring is often noticeable, especially at the beginning of summer. Because the soil is still wet, much of the soil moisture evaporates. This creates clouds and precipitation. Evaporation also costs energy, so the air can heat up less.

Can we forget the hot summer? Not right away. In 1983 we had to deal with “the bleakest spring of the century at Uccle,” according to the RMI website. After this wet, wet spring, a dry summer followed. That year was the driest August of the century. At that time, only 10.4mm of rain fell in Uccle, while it normally would have been 70.9mm. So there is still a possibility that we will reach warm temperatures.

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© Geert de Rijk

El Niño phenomenon and tropical temperatures

In recent weeks, there has been talk of a high probability of an El Niño weather phenomenon, which may be accompanied by new worldwide temperature records. This means that the weather in many areas will be very different from what is normal. With us it will most likely not have a visible impact on our summer.

According to different weather models, it will be warmer than usual this summer. East winds will bring summer temperatures of 25 degrees and more. Tropical temperatures of 30 degrees and more are less common. The wind must blow more from the south for that. It cannot be ruled out that the thermometer will occasionally touch 30 degrees during the summer months, but this does not seem to control the weather. Some weather models indicate more southeasterly winds in August.

Since Belgium is a little further away from high pressure areas over Scandinavia than, for example, the Netherlands, we have a higher chance of thunderstorms. Humid air coming from the Mediterranean can also regularly bring rain and thunderstorms. Regular amounts of precipitation are also expected.

Spain already experienced a heat wave in April.
Spain already experienced a heat wave in April. © AFP

Seasonal models: are they reliable?

Monthly and seasonal forecasts come true 60% of the time. The five-day forecast comes true 90 percent of the time. So we should take seasonal predictions for summer with a grain of salt. The forecast for June will be more reliable and accurate than the forecast for August, which will fall into the future.

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Monthly and seasonal forecasts for summer and winter are more likely to come true than forecasts for spring and fall. The ability to predict the atmosphere in transition seasons is smaller because cold and hot often alternate.

It is important to know that seasonal models establish an approximate trend in average monthly air pressure, temperature, and precipitation. So it is very likely that we will have a colder week or a very hot week. But we can cautiously predict that it will be a warm summer with occasional showers and some thunder.

Denton Watson

"Friend of animals everywhere. Evil twitter fan. Pop culture evangelist. Introvert."

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